Will a strong El Nino cause coffee prices to rise?

The National Weather Service, in March issued an El Niño advisory. The advisory stated that the phenomenon is 90 % likely to last through the summer of 2015 and at least 80 percent likely to continue through the end of the year.

The price of coffee could increase by 107 percent, with the weather effects of a strong El Nino although others said the average increase typically ranged from 5 to 10 %.

During an El Niño event, waters in the Equatorial Pacific Ocean become warmer than what would be considered as normal as trade winds are lighter, changing what would be thought of as normal weather patterns around the world.

Heavy rains and flooding in the southern U.S. and parts of Latin America, along with droughts in Australia and Asia, would be likely. The recent heavy rain in drought stricken north Texas and Oklahoma would seem to be a fulfillment of this prediction.

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Hurricane Melissa will devastate coffee production.

Hurricane Melissa is likely to cause severe damage to Jamaica’s coffee production, especially in regions like Mount Airy in St. Andrew. Coffee farmers in Jamaica are bracing for catastrophic impacts as Hurricane Melissa, a Category 5 storm with sustained winds of 175–185 mph, makes landfall. Here’s how the storm is expected to affect coffee production: 🌪️ Direct Threats to Coffee Farming • Unharvested coffee cherries are at high risk: Farmers in Mount Airy have been rushing to harvest what they can before the storm hits. Many fear that cherries left on the trees will be destroyed by wind, flooding, or landslides Jamaica Gleaner. • Infrastructure damage: Roads in coffee-growing regions like St. Andrew are already deteriorating, and the storm is expected to worsen access, making post-storm recovery and transport of beans extremely difficult Jamaica Gleaner. • Flooding and landslides: Melissa is forecast to bring 15–30 inches of rain and storm surges up to 13 feet, which could wash aw...

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